Strategy Analysis

Expectancy Calculator

Calculate your strategy's mathematical expectancy — the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per dollar risked.

Win Rate (%)

Average Win ($)

Average Loss ($)

Number of Trades

+$32.50

Expected Value per Trade

+$3,250

Expected Total

1.50

Profit Factor

1.21

Est. SQN

POSITIVE EDGE

Verdict

What is Expectancy?

Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) – (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)

A positive expectancy means your strategy makes money over many trades. A negative expectancy means you will eventually lose, no matter how good your short-term luck is.

For example: 55% win rate, $150 avg win, $100 avg loss → Expectancy = (0.55 × 150) – (0.45 × 100) = $82.50 – $45 = +$37.50 per trade.

Want to measure your actual EA's expectancy from real backtest data? Use the EA Analyzer Pro tool.